The Santa Cruz Real Estate Market to Date

Gauging what the Real Estate market is doing…or going to do – ie: predicting the market – is a great pastime for real estate experts or casual observers. If I had a nickel for every “How’s the Market?” question I got I’d buy a crystal ball! I did want to investigate how inventory over the past 3 years compared to sales over the past three years. Certainly, the increase in interest rates has slowed the selling frenzy, and now that interest rates hover around 7% and the average mortgage payment has increased a couple thousand a month or so, you’d expect there to be fewer buyers out there.

I researched Single Family Home sales in the county of Santa Cruz to see what it looked like. See graph below.
Highlighting the month of May over the past three years it’s clear that in 2021 the sales numbers were much closer to the number of homes available – particularly as we moved into the Fall months of 2021, sales outpaced listings, a rare phenomenon! In May of 2022, as interest rates started to rise, inventory started moving further away from the sales numbers. May of 2022 and 2023 are similar and then May of 2024 is dramatically different. Not nearly as many sales and inventory reflects the highest it’s been in 3 years.

The sales price of Single Family Homes in Santa Cruz county definitely has climbed dramatically over the last 20+ years, but the graph is steeper and more dramatic since 2020.

Good news for buyers that are still in the market in that they have lots more to choose from and may even find a seller or two willing to negotiate on price – a rare event in recent years. Prediction? No – you won’t find me giving a prediction – all I know is what it’s like now and what it’s been in the past. As for the future? I leave that up to the owners of the crystal balls.